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The 2026 World Cup in North America expanded to 48 teams, up from the 32 that had held steady since 1998. The expansion brought novelty: four countries made their World Cup debut, including Cape Verde. But it also brought a warning for American sports leagues paying attention—especially the College Football Playoff.
The Big Ten is pushing hard for a 24-team College Football Playoff expansion, while the SEC—which holds one of two votes on the matter—remains unconvinced; commissioner Greg Sankey is not behind expansion right now. The College Football Playoff just finished its second 12-team season. Yet the drive toward 24 teams keeps building. The World Cup’s 2026 experience suggests that expansion can erode competitive integrity in ways that look appealing on paper but unfold messily on the field.
Take the newcomers. Cape Verde did not actually win a game at the 2026 World Cup, yet the nation advanced to the knockout round. It took defending champion Argentina to the limit in the Round of 32. That’s expansion’s appeal: underdogs get their shot. But the Round of 32 also saw Paraguay knock out Germany, England nearly lose to DR Congo, and Belgium need a furious comeback to beat Senegal. In 16 games, 12 were decided in the 86th minute or later, including three on penalty kicks. Drama, yes. Real competition? That’s debatable.
The structural problem goes deeper. Eleven teams advanced to the knockout stage by earning just four of a possible nine points in group stage play, compared to only three such teams in the smaller 2022 field. Seven teams advanced with third-place group finishes. Senegal advanced with three points as a third-place team. Cape Verde had three points from three draws but finished second in its group. Expand the field, and mediocrity finds a way through.
College football faces the same problem. Over the past two years, 10 college football teams made their first Playoff appearance, eight of which would have missed in the four-team field. Sounds progressive. But an 8-4 Iowa team with no notable wins would have qualified for a 24-team playoff last year. Tennessee would have been in the mix at 8-3 despite not beating a team with a winning record. James Madison made the Playoff out of the Sun Belt last season and lost 51-34 at Oregon.
The World Cup’s group stage exposed another problem: teams take their foot off the gas when the stakes blur. The United States started most of its backups in its third group stage game against Turkey, knowing it had already won the group. Norway sat its starters against France despite having the opportunity to win the group. In a 24-team college football format, expect the same—teams resting starters once a Playoff spot is mathematically locked in.
There’s a counterargument. Miami went from the last at-large berth to the national championship game in college football. Expansion did make that run possible. And just eight countries have won the 23 World Cup tournaments, suggesting that elite teams still dominate even in a larger field. Brazil is the only country to play in every World Cup.
But the World Cup’s 2026 expansion showed a real cost that college football should think hard about: more teams means more teams that shouldn’t be there, more late-game chaos, and more ways to game the system. The SEC’s resistance to 24-team expansion isn’t about protecting their turf. It’s about watching a global tournament learn that bigger isn’t always better.
