Fire vs. Sun WNBA Prediction: Dimers Releases Updated Forecast

Portland Fire and Connecticut Sun tip off Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 8:00 a.m. PST at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut. The Fire arrive with momentum—they’ve already beaten the Sun twice this season—but Connecticut will be looking to break that pattern at home.

Injury reports could shape the game. Portland appears to have a full roster, while Connecticut awaits word on Maddy Westbeld’s status. That’s the kind of detail that can swing the balance.

Dimers ran 10,000 simulations and came away projecting a narrow Connecticut victory. The model puts the Sun at a 60.2% chance to win—a meaningful advantage for the home team, even with Portland’s strong head-to-head record this season.

Looking at the spread: Dimers gives Connecticut +1.5 a 53.7% chance to cover. The final score projection: 84–81 Sun. Brittney Griner is expected to pace Connecticut with 13 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 assists, while Carla Leite should add 12 points, 2 rebounds, and 4 assists for Portland.

The total points lean defensive. Dimers’ model favors the under—at an over/under of 167.5, the under carries 59.9% of the probability.

Polymarket odds show close betting: Sun −1.5 (48¢), Fire +1.5 (53¢). Moneyline sits at Sun 50¢, Fire 51¢. Over/Under 167.5 is priced at 49¢/52¢.